COT Analysis
EUR/JPY price rises strongly from early 2025 through mid-2026, while the COT sentiment (commercial vs. speculative net positions) shifts from deeply negative to highly positive, showing a long-term convergence that supports the uptrend. However, in late 2025 and early 2026, the price makes new highs while the COT ratio begins to flatten or decline slightly, creating a subtle divergence that hints at fading bullish conviction from commercial traders. On the daily timeframe, this divergence warns that momentum may be slowing, though the overall trend remains intact as long as price stays above key support levels.
EUR/JPY shows a strong long-term positive correlation with the Asset Manager Net Position ratio, as both trend higher from late 2024 into mid-2026. However, the ratio has flattened near 1.39 since early June 2026 while price continues to grind higher, forming a subtle bearish divergence on the daily timeframe. This suggests that the recent upward momentum in EUR/JPY may lack strong institutional backing, raising caution for traders looking for sustained breakouts above the 186-area resistance.
EUR/JPY rallied from late 2024 into early 2026, with the Asset Managers vs Dealers net position ratio increasing alongside price, showing convergence. However, from mid-2025 onward, the ratio peaked and began declining while price continued to make higher highs, creating a clear bearish divergence. This divergence suggests that institutional positioning no longer supports the price uptrend, and recent price weakness aligns with the ratio’s ongoing decline.
